2025 Autumn Budget - the economic picture

26 Nov 2025

Within her Autumn Budget speech, Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced measures that will raise taxes by £26 billion in 2029/30, including a freeze on Income Tax and National Insurance (NI) thresholds beyond 2028 and a cap on the amount under-65s can put into Cash ISAs.

In its latest forecast prepared for the Budget, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) outlined that the UK economy will grow at a slower pace than previously anticipated. Economic growth is predicted to be 1.5% this year; 1.4% in 2026; 1.6% in 2027; and 1.5% in 2028.

The OBR stated that lower productivity growth was to blame for the weaker growth forecast.

In its report, the OBR stated: 'We expect quarterly growth to pick up only gradually in the near term as geopolitical uncertainty persists and domestic business and consumer confidence remains subdued, including in anticipation of further tax rises.'

The OBR published its forecast in error ahead of the Chancellor making her speech to the House of Commons, citing a technical blunder as being the cause. Ms Reeves branded the error as 'deeply disappointing'.